Super Tuesday review

From NAM

Both former Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump delivered strong performances last night in their respective Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, but neither landed the knockout punch for which they hoped.

Clinton continued her dominance in the south, but she surprisingly stumbled in Oklahoma. She won seven of the eleven Democratic contests last night, with American Samoa still to report. Sen. Bernie Sanders, in addition to his 51%-41% win in Oklahoma, took his home state of Vermont and the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses.

Clinton was again dominant in the states with large African American populations, and it is probable that she once more attracted approximately 90% support within the black community. Massachusetts was the only northern state that Clinton carried, but it was close. She finished with 50.3% of the Bay State popular vote.

The unofficial projected Democratic delegate count, according to the New York Times, finds Clinton with 1,001 regular delegates and superdelegates versus Sen. Sanders’ 371. Remember, superdelegates are not required to vote as their state does and can change their minds even if publicly announcing support for a particular candidate. Clinton posts 457 such public commitments while Sanders captures only 22. Among regular delegates, who are committed at least on the first ballot, Clinton has a much smaller 544-349 margin. Democratic National Committee rules require a nominee to secure 2,383 delegate votes.

Trump took seven of the eleven Republican voting states. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) placed first in three, his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) was victorious in the Minnesota caucus. Trump’s strongest percentage, 48.9%, came in Massachusetts. Despite placing first in seven contests, he broke the 40% threshold in only two places: Alabama with 43.8% and Massachusetts.

Factoring in the voting thresholds per state to qualify for delegate apportionment, while taking into account the nuanced individual formulas that each state employs, we can unofficially project Trump to be in the 320 range with Cruz trailing at 225 and Rubio possessing 113 committed regular delegates. Gov. John Kasich follows with 23, and Dr. Ben Carson has eight. The party officer delegates in most states, as well as several small state delegations cumulatively totaling 247 votes, are not included in these projections since they are unbound, or free agents and similar in stature to Democratic superdelegates, at the convention.

Though Trump has an early lead, he is far from securing the 1,237 delegate votes required o clinch the party nomination.
It is possible that Trump’s win will help him build momentum and snowball to victory at the Republican nominating convention. Because as long as the GOP nomination contest remains at least a three-way race, Trump remains favored.

Voter turnout was record-setting on the Republican side. In all but Vermont, more people voted in the Republican primaries last night than four years ago in the 2012 presidential primaries—and by substantial proportions in most cases. In Virginia, GOP voter participation almost reached five times the number of people who voted in the most recent presidential primary.

In all but three states, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Sanders’ Vermont, Republican turnout substantially exceeded that of their Democratic counterparts. In every Super Tuesday state, Democratic turnout was lower last night than for their last open presidential race, the 2008 campaign that featured Clinton and then-Sen. Barack Obama.

There are still many states that will vote this month.

  • March 5: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine
  • March 6: Puerto Rico
  • March 8: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
  • March 12: D.C., Guam
  • March 15: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Northern Mariana Islands
  • March 19: U.S. Virgin Islands
  • March 22: American Samoa, Arizona, Utah

So there are still significant opportunities for the presidential nomination momentum to change. And there is still time for you to talk with your employees about voting. If you are looking for information on voter registration material you can share with your employees, click here.  We also have a video you can share with your team.

With the public paying close attention to the contest, now is a great opportunity to use this interest and talk to your team about registering to vote.

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